Euro-American Worldwide Logistics Briefing (June 2025)
In June 2025, global trade tensions remain high even as some key agreements offer relief. The United States and China have reached a tentative truce to halt further escalation of their trade war. President Trump announced a framework deal fixing U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods at a steep 55% (up from 30%), while China’s retaliatory tariffs stay around 10%. This compromise (pending final approval by both nations) also sees China removing export curbs on rare earth minerals and welcoming back Chinese students to U.S. universities. Despite easing the threat of “triple-digit” duties, the new rates cement a high-cost baseline for U.S.–China commerce. Indeed, U.S. seaborne imports from China plummeted 28.5% year-on-year in May as earlier rounds of tariffs bit, driving U.S. buyers to alternative suppliers. China’s own exports to the U.S. fell by $15.2 billion in May, contributing to a sharp slowdown in China’s overall export growth (weforum.org). These figures underscore how severely the tariff volleys have disrupted trade flows on both sides. Importers are responding by shifting sourcing: shipments from Vietnam, India, Thailand and Mexico to the U.S. have surged double-digits to fill the gap.
Beyond the U.S.–China standoff, other trade partners are adjusting to the new tariff landscape. U.S. and UK officials have finalized a trade agreement that will lower or remove tariffs on many British exports such as automobiles, aerospace parts, steel and aluminum. This “Economic Prosperity” deal establishes quotas for UK-made cars (100,000 vehicles annually at a reduced 10% U.S. import tariff) and commits both countries to tariff-free trade in certain aerospace products (whitehouse.gov). The pact aims to offset the damage of recent U.S. tariffs on UK goods – British exports to the U.S. had plunged by 33% in April (a record £2 billion drop) when the new American duties took effect. Across the Channel, European Union industries are also reeling. Eurozone exports to the U.S. fell over 10% in April, contributing to a steep 8.2% monthly drop in the EU’s external trade (reuters.com). Major European exporters like Germany saw shipments to the U.S. dive by double digits under the strain of higher U.S. import taxes. China, for its part, is courting new markets – Beijing just announced elimination of tariffs on imports from 53 African countries, an outreach to boost trade with developing economies as U.S. demand weakens.
Freight Market Trends in Mid-2025
Global logistics costs and capacity have been whipsawed by these trade developments, as well as ongoing post-pandemic adjustments. Here is a breakdown of current freight market conditions across major modes of transport:
- Ocean Freight: Container shipping rates spiked in early June as U.S. importers rushed to beat the expiration of temporary tariff reductions. After six consecutive weeks of rising spot prices, Drewry’s World Container Index slipped 7% to $3,279 per 40’ container in mid-June, indicating the surge may be tapering off. Carriers had cut back sailings in April–May when U.S.–China volumes plunged, but are now restoring capacity on trans-Pacific lanes to accommodate front-loaded orders. Freight rates from Asia to U.S. West Coast ports jumped dramatically (up 73–81% over six weeks through early June) amid the rush . However, analysts expect excess vessel supply and softer demand to reassert downward pressure on rates in the 2nd half of 2025, especially if tariff hikes resume. On Asia–Europe routes, the redeployment of ships to the Pacific has caused short-term tightening; June spot rates from Shanghai to North Europe ticked up by ~10% (drewry.co.uk). Overall, ocean carriers are managing capacity carefully through blank sailings and could even face new challenges like U.S. port fees on Chinese-built vessels (a surcharge on ships effective October 2025) which may prompt fleet reshuffling. For importers, the current ocean market offers lower year-on-year shipping costs but also volatility – it’s a buyer’s market for now, yet prudent shippers are booking well in advance to lock in space and rate stability.
- Air Freight: Air cargo trends are mixed by region but capacity constraints are emerging on key lanes. In Asia, export airlines are entering a volatile period: the 90-day tariff truce on Chinese goods expires in August, so Chinese shippers are front-loading air shipments through late June and July. This is driving up trans-Pacific air cargo demand in the near term. At the same time, lower U.S. tariffs on other countries’ goods end on July 9, spurring a broader push to move merchandise now. As a result, Trans-Pacific eastbound air routes are seeing a sharp but likely temporary spike in volumes. Capacity is tightening out of major Asian hubs, and air rates may rise for last-minute space heading into July. In contrast, Europe’s airfreight market is relatively stable – outbound capacity to North America and Asia is largely balanced, helped by recovering passenger belly capacity. However, certain specialized sectors (pharmaceuticals, aerospace) face pockets of higher air rates and transit delays due to their unique handling needs. North American air gateways still have some congestion; West Coast airports in particular are capacity-constrained because Asia-U.S. passenger flights have not fully rebounded and e-commerce volumes, while softer than last year, still strain throughput. Overall, air cargo rates in mid-2025 remain well below the extreme peaks of 2021–22, but shippers should anticipate rate volatility on trans-Pacific lanes over the next two months. Building extra lead time (or using charter options for critical freight) is wise as the tariff deadline approaches.
- Truckload and Intermodal (Rail): In North America, the domestic trucking market is saturated with capacity. Truckload spot rates have been sluggish, reflecting what one logistics firm calls an “elongated state of carrier oversupply”. Ample trucking availability is keeping transportation costs in check for shippers on local and regional hauls. This dynamic likely persists until enough small carriers exit the market or freight demand picks up later in the year – current projections suggest normalization by early 2026 if trends hold. On the rail side, there are signs of a rebound in intermodal demand as imports flow in. U.S. West Coast ports saw volumes plunge in May due to the tariff war, but as the tariff pause unleashed pent-up imports from China in June, the Ports of LA/Long Beach have quickly gotten busier. Consequently, demand for inland intermodal (containers moving from the West Coast by rail) is spiking. Many shippers are taking advantage of cheaper intermodal rates for freight that isn’t time-sensitive – a cost-saving strategy given trucking’s faster service isn’t needed for every load. Intermodal providers are generally ready for this uptick; rail networks have capacity after earlier volume declines. We do note that drayage (port trucking) in some hubs faces delays, partially due to rail yard transitions like the CP–KCS railroad merger causing short-term disruptions. But overall, inland transport is fluid. Importers moving heavy or bulky loads inland from ports right now can capitalize on favorable trucking and rail pricing, especially if they plan around any localized bottlenecks.
- Warehousing and Inventory: The warehousing sector is at an interesting inflection. After two years of rapid expansion, U.S. industrial capacity is catching up with demand. The national warehouse vacancy rate has risen to ~7% (up from under 5% during the peak of 2022), easing pressure on space . Rent costs had even leveled off or dipped over the past year. However, recent activity suggests a turn: the Warehouse Pricing Index just increased for the first time in 13 months in Q2 2025. This uptick is driven in part by front-loaded inventories in port markets – as companies import goods early to get ahead of tariffs or potential supply disruptions, they are filling coastal warehouses. Another factor is the surging interest in bonded storage and Foreign Trade Zones (FTZs). Search activity for bonded/FTZ warehouse space skyrocketed 150% in the last quarter. Importers are actively considering FTZs as a “safe harbor” to hold goods without incurring duties. By storing products in a bonded facility or FTZ, they can defer or even avoid tariffs (for example, by re-exporting or waiting to see if tariff policies change) (warehousequote.com). Many firms find the flexibility worth the extra cost of these specialized warehouses. Overall warehouse pricing is still moderate across most inland U.S. markets, but hotspots like Los Angeles, Houston, and New York (near ports) are seeing capacity tighten again due to the wave of incoming inventory. For exporters, one concerning trend is container availability: with fewer imports earlier this spring, empty containers became scarcer at inland locations, a situation that could persist if ocean carriers reallocate equipment to high-demand lanes. Businesses should monitor warehouse capacity and container supply closely as we head into peak season. Securing space or equipment early – or using creative solutions like “pop-up” storage and drop containers – may be necessary if inventory levels suddenly rise.
Is your supply chain prepared for what’s next? At Euro-American Worldwide Logistics, we help businesses chart a steady course through uncertain waters. Whether it’s adjusting your freight plan for peak season, finding warehousing solutions, or navigating the latest trade regulations, our experts have you covered.
Don’t go it alone this year. Contact Euro-American Worldwide Logistics today to discuss your Q3–Q4 logistics strategy. Let us put our global network and seasoned insight to work for you – so you can focus on growth while we handle the complexity. Reach out now and fortify your supply chain for a strong finish to 2025!
