Key Forces Shaping Supply Chain & Logistics in Early 2026

As 2026 begins, the North American logistics landscape remains shaped by a blend of resilience, cautious optimism, and data-driven watchfulness. From domestic economic signals to shifting freight demand and evolving corporate investment behavior, the latest indicators provide critical context for supply chain professionals navigating this still-fluid environment.

U.S. Economic Growth: Resilient but Uneven

The U.S. economy enters Q1 2026 with conflicting signals. The Atlanta Fed GDPNowcast estimated 5.3% growth in the prior quarter—a robust figure, but one economists advise viewing with caution due to noisy and possibly anomalous data. More conservative consensus estimates from Blue Chip analysts peg GDP growth closer to 1%.

Still, there are tangible signs of economic strength under the surface. Consumer spending remains steady, and nonresidential investment—particularly in construction, automation, and equipment—is contributing meaningfully to GDP. Modest federal and state-level infrastructure investments continue to support demand as well.

Lagging sectors include:

  • Residential construction
  • General imports
  • Inventory rebuilding

These trends suggest a stable but modestly expanding economy, with transportation and logistics demand tracking closely to infrastructure and capex patterns rather than consumer imports.

Corporate Investment Accelerates—Led by Tech Infrastructure

Capital expenditures (capex) are a leading indicator for logistics activity, and late 2025 showed a 6.2% annual growth rate in corporate investment. While data center infrastructure accounted for roughly 56% of this increase—driven by AI, cloud computing, and decentralized data storage—investment remained broadly distributed across sectors.

Notably strong capex areas:

  • Equipment and machinery
  • Electronics and automation
  • Productivity-enhancing technology

If interest rates ease over the course of 2026, corporate spending could accelerate further, fueling additional demand for logistics support in industrial and high-tech sectors.

Global Logistics Index Points to Moderate Freight Demand

The LogisticsPULSE Global Logistics Index (GLI)—a forward-looking composite indicator for freight demand—registered 51.6 in December, down from 52.6 in November but still in expansion territory (values over 50 signal growth). While the index remains modestly positive, it was down 4.9% year-over-year, indicating tempered demand compared to late 2024.

Key GLI Takeaways:

  • Growth is steady but softening
  • Index remains above long-term equilibrium
  • Suggests stable—but not surging—freight volumes for the first half of 2026

For logistics planners, this means adjusting for balanced capacity—not an overheated freight environment, but not a downturn either.

How Euro-American Supports Your Strategy in 2026

At Euro-American Worldwide Logistics, we track indicators like GDP forecasts, corporate capex trends, and the GLI to proactively align our capacity, resources, and strategy with real-time market conditions.

Whether you’re preparing for increased output, managing high-value cargo, or navigating global sourcing shifts, our integrated freight forwarding, warehousing, and customs brokerage services ensure your supply chain stays agile and resilient.

Let’s start the year with confidence—backed by data, strategy, and a logistics partner built for precision.

Contact Euro-American today to discuss how we can support your 2026 planning.

References

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. GDPNow Forecast, Dec 2025.

LogisticsPULSE Global Logistics Index, Dec 2025.

Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Department of Commerce.

Reuters Business Data.

Wall Street Journal. “Capex Spending Trends and AI Infrastructure.”