North American Supply Chains: Key Updates and Emerging Trends

Truck Tonnage Outlook Shows Positive Growth

The forecast for U.S. truck tonnage in 2025 indicates a 4.6% growth rate, suggesting a gradual recovery in the first half of the year before accelerating in Q3 and Q4. If trends hold, tonnage could reach record levels by early 2026. This projection, based on industry models with a 98.6% accuracy rate, signals potential strength in freight demand. However, sustained manufacturing growth over the coming months will be necessary to confirm this trajectory.

CEO Sentiment: A Wait-and-See Approach

Despite a slight dip in the Chief Executive Confidence Index from 6.4 to 6.3 in January 2025, over 52% of CEOs remain optimistic about improving business conditions. The current hesitation in investment and hiring largely stems from ongoing uncertainty around tariffs, regulatory policies, and taxation. However, historical trends indicate that as confidence stabilizes, businesses are likely to resume investments, boosting supply chain activity and logistics demand.

Freight Market Trends: Truckload, LTL, and Parcel Pricing Shifts

Full Truckload (FTL) Pricing

• FTL rates increased 0.8% month-over-month in January 2025, following an 8.1% surge the previous month.
• Year-over-year, prices declined by 2.3%, reflecting a market still adjusting to recent economic shifts.

Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) Pricing

• LTL rates jumped 5.7% month-over-month in January, a sharp increase compared to previous months.
• Year-over-year, LTL prices rose 6.2%, signaling early signs of tighter capacity, which may be linked to reduced carrier availability following major industry exits.

Parcel and Small Package Market

• Parcel and small package courier prices surged 8.4% year-over-year in January.
• E-commerce sales grew 4.7% year-over-year, though monthly figures dipped 1.9%, reflecting seasonal fluctuations in consumer demand.

Implications for North American Logistics

With truck tonnage expected to hit record highs by 2026, freight rates stabilizing, and LTL and parcel pricing showing upward trends, logistics professionals must prepare for shifting market conditions. As CEO confidence strengthens and investment resumes, businesses should focus on supply chain resilience, freight capacity planning, and cost-effective transportation strategies to stay ahead.

At Euro-American Worldwide Logistics, we provide expert guidance and tailored solutions to help companies navigate these industry shifts. Contact us today to optimize your logistics strategy for 2025 and beyond.

Sources

• U.S. Trucking Data & Economic Forecasts (2025).
• Chief Executive Confidence Index (2025).
• Bureau of Labor Statistics – Producer Price Index (2025).